At its core, the Car Crash Detective is an advocacy site. Nearly every post falls into one (or both) of two categories: identifying best practices and providing case studies of what occurs when best practices aren’t followed (due to a lack of knowledge, a lack of interest, or the vagaries of fate). To that end, one of the three elements of best practices for safe road use involves vehicular safety (the other two are driver behavior and road infrastructure). And when one of the two major testing bodies in the United States for vehicular crash testing (the other being the NHTSA) decides to hide technical information related to their decisions on crashworthiness, that’s kind of a big deal. And that’s just what the IIHS did in 2019. And when they did, I immediately contacted them about the inherent problems in this issue. They responded by noting that they were continually improving their site and that my feedback would be taken into consideration. That wasn’t good enough, and I noted the disservice they were doing to the general US population and all individuals interested in crashworthiness and the march toward safer vehicles.
Fortunately, after some deliberation, they appear to have listened. Later in 2019, the IIHS decided to republish technical information related to their crash tests. They still don’t provide nearly as much information as the NHTSA, which prints a full technical report related to each crash, filled with hundreds of pages of data, charts, and large color photographs detailing thousands of elements of each test–those are the benefits you get from governmental organizations vs private ones, and the NHTSA is a public institution while the IIHS is literally funded by car insurance companies. However, any information helps us make better decisions, and I’m happy to see the IIHS take a step toward transparency and away from a dumbing down of information provided to the public.
If you find my information on best practices in car and car seat safety helpful, you can buy my books here or do your shopping through this Amazon link. Canadians can shop here for Canadian purchases. It costs nothing extra to do so, but when you shop through my links, a small portion of your purchase, regardless of what you buy, will go toward the maintenance of The Car Crash Detective.
I’ve written a number of articles over the years about the dangers of speeding, and of how as humans, we don’t have an instinctive understanding of the crash forces involved. This is Vision Zero talk. It’s about how crashing at high speeds is like falling off a cliff. It’s about how you can’t drive beyond 43 mph on an undivided highway and expect to walk away from a crash. It’s about how speeding is the magic bullet for cutting fatalities in every country in the world. Well, if you haven’t had enough of these articles, here’s another. The information comes from a country that takes road safety much more seriously than we do in the United States (hint: that’s just about every other rich country). Today’s information comes from Sweden, specifically Trafikverket, or the Swedish Transport Administration. They’re kind enough to publish a lot of information directly in English to encourage a wider dispersal of information throughout their population. There I was, reading a brochure late at night titled “Safety in the car – how to protect yourself and your child“, when I came across this bit:
A frontal collision at 90 kilometres an hour is like falling from the tenth floor
Driving too fast can be just as dangerous as falling off a cliff or from a tall building. But we do not perceive the speed as dangerous when we drive a car. We understand the danger of falling from a height, but not how dangerous it is to collide at 90 kilometres an hour.
It’s hard to state things more simply. As noted in the image above, you’d never push that girl off that cliff. You’d never take a jump yourself. But if you get into a crash at 90 kph (55 mph), whether a head-on collision with another vehicle or a frontal collision with a building, a tree, a bridge, or a rock wall, you might as well have. You’re dealing with just as much force in a highway crash as you’d feel if you took a flying leap off a 10-story building, or if you pushed the person you most loved in the world off said building.
The thought is terrible. Unacceptable. It’s something we’d never willingly do to anyone. But that’s not how we see things when we drive. We don’t realize that we’re essentially flying off that cliff; we just happen to be doing so while the ground recedes exactly as quickly as we hurtle toward it.
You might think at this point: Mike, it’s not exactly the same. After all, I’m in a safe car. I’m wearing my seat belt. I’ve got frontal airbags, for goodness’ sake!
The problem is that you still wouldn’t willingly go off a cliff 10 stories high while buckled into a car, would you? Not even if it had a frontal airbag and a good front crash score. Not even if you could be sure of hitting the ground vehicle nose first. And you certainly wouldn’t strap your child into a car seat and roll her off that building, telling yourself she’d be just fine since she were rear-facing or forward-facing or boostered or anything of the sort.
You’re still dealing with tremendous forces. You’re still dealing with a very real risk of death for everyone involved.
We live or die by Vision Zero principles
Vision Zero principles aren’t based on black magic. They’re based on the deaths of tens of thousands of people. The knowledge was gained painfully, with bloodshed and broken hearts. We now know that if, for example, you’re traveling on a roadway with any risk of collision with opposing traffic (i.e., in an undivided highway), traffic cannot be traveling above 43 mph if the goal is for everyone to survive any potential collisions.
A 55 mph collision is 56% more severe than a 43 mph collision. As we’ve discussed elsewhere, the difference in miles per hour isn’t linear; it’s exponential. The formula for kinetic energy involves mass multipled by the square of velocity. In other words, you don’t divide 55 by 43 to see how much more severe the crash is; you divide the square of 55 by the square of 43 (55*55)/(43*43), which gives you 1.56, or an increase in force of 56%.
To extend the analogy a bit, a crash 100% more severe (in other words, twice as severe) as a 43 mph crash would not be an 86 mph crash, but a 61 mph crash ((43*43*2)^.5). These crashes, by the way, are almost guaranteed to take the lives of at least 50-75% of people involved in them, based on my analyses of fatal crashes at similar speeds. Keep in mind again that the IIHS tests vehicles for frontal collisions at 40 mph, which they already consider to be a severe collision.
We’re not meant to survive high speed collisions. Not even with the latest vehicle technology. If you’re going to hit something directly, your odds of living drop if that direct hit occurs above 43 mph. And few of us would expect to survive being tossed out of a 10th story window. But those are the risks we take each time we risk a 55 mph crash.
If you find my information on best practices in car and car seat safety helpful, you can buy my books here or do your shopping through this Amazon link. Canadians can shop here for Canadian purchases. It costs nothing extra to do so, but when you shop through my links, a small portion of your purchase, regardless of what you buy, will go toward the maintenance of The Car Crash Detective.
For the last six years on the CCD, we’ve talked about pretty much nothing but best practices. Along the way, we’ve also looked at a number of crashes that have sadly resulted in environments where best practices just aren’t practiced. A story I came across today involves that of Jillian Brown, now 8, who was internally decapitated in 2016 as a 5-year old when involved in a side impact crash along with her mother, Lindsey, and sister, Samantha. Without knowing all of the details of the case, I’m going to take a look at it from the perspective of the crash analysis itself, her car seat configuration, what we know about best practices, and which factors could and could not have led to different outcomes. The goal here isn’t to place blame on Evenflo, the family, or US laws and customs. As always, it’s to figure out the difference between what’s being done and what would be done if best practices were followed, and to advocate for the latter. Let’s go.
What were the circumstances of the crash, and what factors did the vehicles play in them?
With that in mind, this was a severe crash. Brown was driving a Suzuki Forenza, a vehicle whose production stopped in the US in 2008 when it was renamed the Chevrolet Cruze. Per the IIHS, the car had a poor side impact rating, with a poor structural and safety cage score, poor scores for rear passenger head and neck injury, and only acceptable injury scores for the rear passenger pelvis and leg. To put it bluntly, in a side impact crash with a small SUV-sized vehicle at 31 mph, you’d expect a significant risk of head and neck injury (e.g., a concussion, brain damage, skull fractures, broken necks, etc), terrible levels of vehicular intrusion (as in the vehicle hitting you inside your vehicle), and significant risks of broken legs and pelvises.
The simplest way to describe the potential impacts of such a collision is to state that death or severe, catastrophic injury would be likely. It’s a fortunate surprise that both girls and their mother weren’t killed on the spot.
Which injuries did the girls receive, and which car seats did they use?
The crash occurred. Samantha was on the driver’s side behind her mother. She was on the side of the impact. The ProPublica article doesn’t mention her injuries in any detail, but a GoFundMe notes she suffered a broken pelvis. Jillian suffered neck and spinal injuries and eventual paralysis from the neck down. Both girls were in car seats–booster seats by all appearances, because we know Jillian was in one and as the older sister, Samantha would not have been in an earlier stage seat (i.e., a harnessed seat). Jillian weighed 37 pounds. Samantha would have weighed more. No article I’ve found mentions which specific car seat she sat in. We can assume it was a booster, but only her parents know which one.
What do best practices suggest would have been best placements for these girls?
There’s all kind of press about how Evenflo was in the wrong for allowing kids to be boostered from 30 pounds onward instead of from 40 pounds. However, I don’t think that was the core issue here. Jillian weighed 37 pounds; she was much closer to 40 than she was to 30. I don’t think the 3 extra pounds had anything to do with the unfortunate issues she suffered. The argument put forth online is that, had the parents known that 40 pounds was a safer minimum for boostering than 30, they’d have placed her in a harnessed seat. Perhaps. However, at the same time, parents are already highly fond of ignoring safety recommendations, and the majority of states allow children to be boostered from the time they turn 4 or 5 already, regardless of weight. In all probability, Jillian’s parents would have boostered her whether the seat had said 40 pounds or 30. But let’s take a look at best practices. What would the Swedes do?
The truth is that best practices are rather straightforward here. The Swedes are fine with boostering from as young as 5. That said, they’re fine with doing so because kids are expected to sit properly in such seats and are taught to do so. I have no idea how Jillian was sitting in her booster seat at the time of the crash, but it’s a given that if a child isn’t sitting appropriately in a booster seat, she’s not going to be as safe as she would have been in a forward-facing harnessed seat, which essentially forces her to sit properly due to the harness. For all we know, she might have had the shoulder belt around her neck or behind her arm. Or not. We just don’t know. But we do know that she’d have been in in a booster seat in Sweden.
Does this mean she’d have suffered the same injuries there? Possibly. Probably not. For one thing, the intersection that led to the collision may not have existed in Sweden, or at the very least, may have had much lower speeds and speed cameras present, reducing the odds of the collision occurring to begin with. Additionally, it’s likely that the vehicle her parents drove would have had more safety features like a better side impact score and perhaps side airbags, given Swedes’ greater propensity to adopt safety-minded technology than Americans and American manufacturers in general.
What if she’d been rear-facing? Would that even have been possible?
On an entirely different note, as a 5-year old who weighed 37 pounds, Jillian could still easily have been rear-facing, whether in Sweden (where 55 pound rear-facing seats are available), or in the United States, where seats like the Clek Fllo, Clek Foonf, and Diono Rainier –all 50-pound rear-facing seats existed back in 2016, and would have allowed her to have rear-faced then and continued to rear-face for several more months, if not years, given her weight.
Would rear-facing have offered her more protection? Yes, by virtue of the fact that she’d have been pushed into her seat rather than out of it due to the forward motion of the collision (despite being a side impact, the vehicle was still traveling forward, which is why Jillian was found slumped forward after the crash). Additionally, she’d have received all the benefits of being in a harnessed seat. This would have been the absolute best seating configuration for her.
We can’t judge the effectiveness of a car seat from a crash test video
As tempting as it is to watch a video of a dummy being flung in one direction and use it as evidence of the effectiveness or lack thereof of a car seat design, we just can’t do so in a reality-based world–even if we’re physicians and members of the AAP. That’s not how crash tests work. That’s not how the NHTSA, NTF, IIHS, NCAP, or any other reputable organization tests vehicles. The dummies aren’t simply used as visual props; they’re filled with sensors which are read to determine the actual forces an individual of a certain size (weight and height and proportions) may have faced in a similar position under similar forces in a similar crash. It doesn’t move the discussion forward to quote individuals (even physicians) stating breathlessly that they would or would not have their children in particular seats based on their viewings of videos. With all due respect, you can’t tell a 300 HIC-15 head trauma from 3000 HIC-15 trauma by watching a dummy’s head snap back and forth. One leads to brain damage. The other does not. You tell them apart by sensors.
Despite our best efforts, tragedies can and do still occur when children are in cars
I’m the last person to defend corporations; my history on this site shows that I take the sides of individuals and not companies or institutions, because all too often, institutions in profit-based countries put people last, and we all suffer because of it. But underneath it all, I advocate for best practices, regardless of where they come from.
Had Samantha–who had also been boostered–suffered Jillian’s injuries while Jillian had suffered hers in exchange, her parents would not be blaming Evenflo, despite the fact that both children would have been–again–in nearly the same crash conditions. Had Jillian passed away and not been confined to a lifetime of paralysis, again, Evenflo would not have been on trial here, and the situation would have been viewed as what it was–a severe, tragic collision. Bringing a suit against Evenflo may help pay for Jillian’s considerable medical costs (especially since we refuse to adopt a single payer healthcare system that would make such costs bearable for families), but it doesn’t accurately reflect the circumstances of her injuries.
The only car seat configuration I’m sure would have offered significantly greater protection, given what we know, was rear-facing. But I can’t blame parents for not rear-facing a 5-year old. And I can’t blame Evenflo for an internal decapitation involving a boostered 5-year old. She either wasn’t mature enough to use the seat or she was. If she weren’t, she wouldn’t have sat properly. If she were, the fact that she weighed 37 pounds was irrelevant; a 5-year old can legally sit in a booster and can safely do so, as evidenced by its being the standard age in Sweden. Blaming Evenflo for this tragedy is a bad call.
If you find my information on best practices in car and car seat safety helpful, you can buy my books here or do your shopping through this Amazon link. Canadians can shop here for Canadian purchases. It costs nothing extra to do so, but when you shop through my links, a small portion of your purchase, regardless of what you buy, will go toward the maintenance of The Car Crash Detective.
We’ve compared the rates of child deaths in Norway to the United States in the past and seen how we’ve come up short in comparison. Today we’re going to make the same comparison with the latest data available between Sweden, another fellow rich country from which most of my research on best practices in car seat safety is based, and the United States. To put it bluntly, we lose far more children (a disproportionately greater amount) to road trauma each year in the United States than Swedes do in Sweden. And as is almost always the case in road fatalities, these deaths are almost always preventable.
How many children die in road traffic crashes each year in Sweden?
Per the NTF, 5 children died due to road traffic in Sweden in 2018. Four of them were pedestrians while one was a vehicle passenger. Between 2016 and 2018, on average, there were 4 deaths of children under 13 each year.
How many children die from road trauma in the United States each year?
Per the IIHS, who pulls numbers from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) of the US Department of Transportation, there were 880 deaths of children younger than 18 in 2018, with 639 (73%) occurring with passenger vehicle occupants, 157 (18%) with pedestrians, and 26 (3%) with bicycling children.
How do Swedish and US child crash deaths compare proportionally?
We know there were 880 child car crash deaths in the US in 2018 and 5 in Sweden in the same year. The US number is much higher, but how much higher is it? After all, there are more children in the US than there are in Sweden since the US population is larger than that of Sweden.
This is where proportions come in. For simplicity’s sake, we won’t compare the number of children in Sweden to the number in the US, but will compare populations and presume there are proportionally similar percentages of children in both countries. This is actually a rather accurate assumption, as the Swedish government notes the average Swedish woman has 1.75 children, while the World Bank notes that the fertility rate in Sweden in 2016 was 1.85 births per woman, which was nearly identical to the US’ rate at 1.8.
With that assumption out of the way, the population in Sweden in 2018 was approximately 10.12 million, while that of the United States was 327.2 million. In other words, the US population was 32.33x larger, or there were 32.33 Americans for each Swede. Let’s assume then, that there were roughly 33.33 American children for each Swedish child. The death toll in the US at 880 was 176x that of Sweden’s at 5. In other words, 176 American children died due to car crashes for each Swedish child who passed away.
The proportions are not even. It was much safer to be a child in Sweden in terms of odds of surviving a country full of cars than it was to be a child in the United States. Specifically, despite the fact that there were 32 times as many children in the US as there were in Sweden, the number of children killed was not 32 times higher, as one would have expected had the proportions held. Rather, the death toll was 176 times higher.
What would the death tolls look like if the US were like Sweden, or if Sweden were like the US?
If the US had the same safety record as Sweden, we’d have lost 32.33 * 5, or roughly 162 children to car crashes in 2018. Instead, we lost 880, or roughly 5.44 children for each Swedish child lost after controlling for population differences.
That’s a huge difference.
To see it the other way, if Sweden had our safety record, they would have lost 5 * 5.44, or roughly 27 children to car crashes in 2018. Instead, they lost 5.
Make no mistake; we’d still have lost more than a hundred children to car crashes even if we’d had as much of a safety-minded culture as that in Sweden. But the difference would have been completely explained by our much greater population. This is not the case here. As things are, if Sweden magically grew to the point where it had a population of 300+ million individuals, they’d still only have lost 1/5th to 1/6th as many children to crashes as we did. They’re doing something (several things) differently there.
Running the numbers this way gives us a different way of understanding what a difference exists between child safety in the United States vs that in Sweden. Due to a variety of reasons, things are different there. It’s safer. But why?
Why are road conditions so much safer for Swedish children than for American ones?
If you find my information on best practices in car and car seat safety helpful, you can buy my books here or do your shopping through this Amazon link. Canadians can shop here for Canadian purchases. It costs nothing extra to do so, but when you shop through my links, a small portion of your purchase, regardless of what you buy, will go toward the maintenance of The Car Crash Detective.
I like comparisons, especially ones based on proportions. Why?Because they’re fun!
But they’re more than just fun. Comparisons are an essential way of making sense of the world, while proportions help you figure out if there are any elephants in the room, metaphorically speaking. To put it another way, comparisons through proportions give you a quick and accurate way of understanding whether certain figures (e.g., the number of miles driven annually by the average adult or the number of people killed per 100,000 due to road traffic) are larger or smaller than you’d expect them to be when crosschecked with other countries.
These comparisons teach us things. In many cases, they underscore how important simple behavioral changes (such as driving less or at slower speeds or on safer roads) can add up to the tune of thousands of lives saved–or lost–per year. At a very personal level, they can give us the tools to help us make it home to our loved ones each night.
We do many things right. But we’ve still got a ways to go
It’s important to be able to learn from our neighbors, because there are a great many things we do in the United States that, while better than they are in a great many poor countries, are far worse than how things are done in a great many rich countries. We can learn from Sweden about how long kids actually benefit from rear-facing. We can learn from the UK about how important it is to limit our annual miles. We can learn from Iceland about how few deaths we actually need to accept per capita if we make safe driving and community-oriented living national level priorities. We need fewer heros and more Vision Zeroes.
We need to be able to learn from each other to improve.
If you find my information on best practices in car and car seat safety helpful, you can buy my books here or do your shopping through this Amazon link. Canadians can shop here for Canadian purchases. It costs nothing extra to do so, but when you shop through my links, a small portion of your purchase, regardless of what you buy, will go toward the maintenance of The Car Crash Detective.
35,000 Americans will die this year on the road. You don't have to be one of them. A car seat and car safety blog to promote best practices for families.